If we individually develop our ACEs (Abstract Cognitive Enablers – rational thinking, critical thinking, advanced logic, complex inductive reasoning, hypothetico-deductive reasoning, creativity, and metacognition), we will be in a better position to be able to compete with AI or AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) as they begin to play a greater role in our society.
It is estimated by experts that AGI will arrive within the next few years – if not this year (Sproule, 2025). This is the kind of AI that will be able to make decisions and be far superior to the AI we are seeing today. When AGI arrives, then we will see the economic turmoil begin.
McKinsey (2023) estimates that about 30% of jobs will be replaced or seriously modified by AI by 2030. With all that upheaval, it is expected that 97 million new jobs will emerge. What are these new jobs and what qualifications will be in demand? There will be some highly technical jobs working on the technical aspects of AI and computing that will be quite secure but be cautious about jobs that are touted as working with AI or teaching people about AI. These last two categories will be very short lived as AI continues to evolve, the need to teach anyone how to use it will fall to zero as AI takes on this role.
As individuals, our best chance of prospering in the new world of ubiquitous powerful AGI agents is to develop our ACEs to direct, or at least compete with as equals, the AI that will be directing the evolution of society. It is a good thing that you have well developed ACEs – or do you? That’s why you went to university, isn’t it?
The prevalence of ACEs in the population is very low. Although universities claim to teach their students ACEs, the research doesn’t bear it out. It is estimated that only about 3% of university graduates demonstrate a significant increase in critical thinking (Terenzini et. al., 1999, and Arum et. al., 2001). More worrying is that the evidence suggests that we possess relatively little insight into our higher-order cognitive processes (Double, 2025).
It isn’t really the universities’ fault. There is little, if any, targeted instruction. As well, measuring ACEs accurately is extremely difficult (Cowen, 2001; & Pantzare, 2015), and in the everyday assessment of students, it simply doesn’t happen (Peng, & Kievit, 2020). Higher education teachers can’t do it, even though there are many who claim that they can. In order to effectively measure and assess these skills, a teacher would have to mark a single piece of work repeatedly, focusing on the skills one at a time in order to effectively measure them (Miller, 1978).
Since we have evidence that only about 3% develop a single ACE, the probability of developing six ACEs becomes even smaller.
In many ways, developing some artificial ACEs (rational thinking, critical thinking, advanced logic, complex inductive reasoning, hypothetico-deductive reasoning) is one of the central goals of AI development. In a recent exchange with Geoffrey Hinton, (personal communication, 2024) he said that there are several AI models demonstrating promising results when it comes to ACEs.
If we don’t have well developed ACEs, where will this leave us? Depending on our ACE development, we will end up either being subservient to, partnered with, or directing the work of AGI in the future (Walch, 2024).
As Geoffrey Hinton, 2024 Nobel Prize Winner, said, “Poorly developed ACES will lead us to being ‘pet tigers’ to advanced AGI agents” (Sproule, 2025).
References
Arum, R., and Josipa Roksa. (2011). Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Cowan N. (2001). The magical number 4 in short-term memory: a reconsideration of mental storage capacity. Behav Brain Sci. (1):87-114.
Kathleen Walch (2024). Is Critical Thinking A Superpower In The AI Era? Forbes.
McKinsey Global Institute (2023). Generative AI and the Future of Work in America – report.
Miller J. (1978). Multidimensional same–different judgments: evidence against independent comparisons of dimensions. J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform. 4(3):411-22.
Pantzare, A. L. (2015). Interrater reliability in large-scale assessments – Can teachers score national tests reliably without external controls? Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 20(9), 1-14
Peng, P. Kievit, A. (2020). The Development of Academic Achievement and Cognitive Abilities: A Bidirectional Perspective. Child Dev Perspect, 14(1):15–20.
Sproule, L. (2025). Will we control AI, or will it control us? Top researchers weigh in. CBC News · Posted: Jan 11, 2025
Terenzini, P. T., Pascarella, E. T., & Blimling, G. S. (1999). Students’ out-of-class experiences and their influence on learning and cognitive development: A literature review. Journal of College Student Development, 40(5), 610-623.
World Economic Report (2020). The Future of Work Report.
Comments
2 responses to “ACE Development and the Future of Work”
Your comment, “Since we have evidence that only about 3% develop a single ACE, the probability of developing six ACEs becomes even smaller” paints a bleak picture of the long-term trajectory of the human population if we do not step up and work to solve the lack of ACEs in society. It is entirely possible to integrate ACE development into even primary school curriculum (Funderstanding, 2024). So why aren’t we doing just that?
As we have “progressed” our society we adopted some patterns that have caused reduced the enforcement on ACEs in public school systems that would help children adopt CT skills.
If we were to take on rebuilding these critical skills with elementary student, I suspect we would have less of the chaos and dis-information that we see today,
Funderstanding, 2024; “Practical and Exciting Abstract Learning Activities for the Classroom”; https://funderstanding.com/teachers/practical-and-exciting-abstract-learning-activities-for-the-classroom/
I think we are already losing this even more so to Ai. I work with some teens who don’t think they even need to learn certain subjects because “they will just ask chat gtp”. I struggle with teaching these kids the basics. And I can’t make them unlearn their bad parenting and lack of desire to want to learn.