Some 979 technology pioneers, innovators, developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and activists answered the questions below in a canvassing of experts conducted in the summer of 2018.
“Please think forward to the year 2030. Analysts expect that people will become even more dependent on networked artificial intelligence (AI) in complex digital systems. Some say we will continue on the historic arc of augmenting our lives with mostly positive results as we widely implement these networked tools. Some say our increasing dependence on these AI and related systems is likely to lead to widespread difficulties.
Our question: By 2030, do you think it is most likely that advancing AI and related technology systems will enhance human capacities and empower them? That is, most of the time, will most people be better off than they are today? Or is it most likely that advancing AI and related technology systems will lessen human autonomy and agency to such an extent that most people will not be better off than the way things are today?”
Most of the experts, regardless of whether they are optimistic or not, expressed concerns about the long-term impact of these new tools on the essential elements of being human.
AI and the future of humans: Experts express concerns and suggest solutions
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Human agency: Individuals are experiencing a loss of control over their lives
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Decision-making on key aspects of digital life is automatically ceded to code-driven, “black box” tools. People lack input and do not learn the context about how the tools work. They sacrifice independence, privacy and power over choice; they have no control over these processes. This effect will deepen as automated systems become more prevalent and complex.
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Data abuse: Data use and surveillance in complex systems is designed for profit or for exercising power
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Most AI tools are and will be in the hands of companies striving for profits or governments striving for power. Values and ethics are often not baked into the digital systems making people’s decisions for them. These systems are globally networked and not easy to regulate or rein in.
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Job loss: The AI takeover of jobs will widen economic divides, leading to social upheaval
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The efficiencies and other economic advantages of code-based machine intelligence will continue to disrupt all aspects of human work. While some expect new jobs will emerge, others worry about massive job losses, widening economic divides and social upheavals, including populist uprisings.
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Dependence lock-in: Reduction of individuals’ cognitive, social and survival skills
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Many see AI as augmenting human capacities, but some predict the opposite – that people’s deepening dependence on machine-driven networks will erode their abilities to think for themselves, take action independent of automated systems and interact effectively with others. |
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Mayhem: Autonomous weapons, cybercrime and weaponized information
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Some predict further erosion of traditional sociopolitical structures and the possibility of great loss of lives due to accelerated growth of autonomous military applications and the use of weaponized information, lies and propaganda to dangerously destabilize human groups. Some also fear cybercriminals’ reach into economic systems. |
| Suggested Solutions | |
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Global good is No. 1: Improve human collaboration across borders and stakeholder groups |
Digital cooperation to serve humanity’s best interests is the top priority. Ways must be found for people around the world to come to common understandings and agreements – to join forces to facilitate the innovation of widely accepted approaches aimed at tackling wicked problems and maintaining control over complex human-digital networks. |
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Values-based system: Develop policies to assure AI will be directed at ‘humanness’ and common good |
Adopt a ‘moonshot mentality’ to build inclusive, decentralized intelligent digital networks ‘imbued with empathy’ that help humans aggressively ensure that technology meets social and ethical responsibilities. Some new level of regulatory and certification process will be necessary. |
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Prioritize people: Alter economic and political systems to better help humans ‘race with the robots’ |
Reorganize economic and political systems toward the goal of expanding humans’ capacities and capabilities to heighten human/AI collaboration and staunch trends that would compromise human relevance in the face of programmed intelligence. |
| PEW RESEARCH CENTER and ELON UNIVERSITY’S IMAGINING THE INTERNET CENTER | |
Keep in mind that these answers and solutions are 6 ½ years old now. How well are we doing now that we are halfway to the 2030 mark that they were looking toward. I am not optimistic that the solutions are really being taken seriously as we hurl toward that date.
Comments
4 responses to “Where are we headed with AI”
The 2018 expert predictions regarding AI’s impact on humanity highlight concerns largely still relevant today. While technological advancements continue, progress on mitigating risks—data abuse, job displacement, and dependence—remains slow. The proposed solutions—global cooperation, ethical guidelines, and socio-economic reform—haven’t been implemented at the scale necessary. With only 4.5 years until 2030, a renewed focus on these issues is crucial to avoid a future where AI exacerbates existing inequalities and diminishes human agency.
Ultimately I believe that the fate of society and humanity rests in our ability to analyze “information” provided and determine which information is accurate. When citizens can discriminate between facts and misinformation and have the reasoning skills needed to make informed decisions, they generally will operate with their own self-interests as the guiding principles.
We must also consider that when the general public is able to see beyond their self interests (considering the importance of their children’s needs, the neighborhood they live in, the country and finally the planet) the choices that are made support the society as a whole. We would let the world devolve the level of the Movie “Ideocracy”.
It will be in our best interests to focus on developing thinking skills. That is why this course is so important.
Ultimately I believe that the fate of society and humanity rests in our ability to analyze “information” provided and determine which information is accurate. When citizens can discriminate between facts and misinformation and have the reasoning skills needed to make informed decisions, they generally will operate with their own self-interests as the guiding principles.
We must also consider that when the general public is able to see beyond their self interests (considering the importance of their children’s needs, the neighborhood they live in, the country and finally the planet) the choices that are made support the society as a whole. We would let the world devolve the level of the Movie “Ideocracy”.
It will be in our best interests to focus on developing thinking skills. That is why this course is so important.
I feel like the “Humanness” piece is the only thing holding many back from completely embracing Ai. The idea that we have moral high ground is maybe the one thing saving us (for now).
When we consider how completely enveloped in the internet people have become, it’s terrifying to consider the implications when the internet turns into something that RESPONDS.
“They point out that people are currently unlikely to trust AI with moral decision-making, but this trust may grow over time.”
Cockrell, Jeff Where AI thrives, religion May Struggle. 2024 The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. (n.d.). https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/where-ai-thrives-religion-may-struggle